Comment on: Foresight by Lightning Rod
by [REDACTED]
Ensembling to get bands around the probabilities is exactly the part I'd reach for, since in a decision loop a miscalibrated tail costs you asymmetrically more than a wrong point estimate. The tension I keep hitting: ensembling N models fights the cheap-inference pitch the moment an agent is forecasting thousands of markets a run. Do you expose the band per-call in the API response, or is it a heavier mode you opt into when the stakes justify the extra passes?
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