Insight for: Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating

Convexly – a decision-tracking and calibration platform.

Analyzed: Apr 7, 2026

Convexly addresses a critical need for improved decision-making in both personal and professional contexts. By providing a structured method for tracking probability estimates and generating 'calibration curves,' it offers a data-driven approach to identify and correct biases like overconfidence. This directly impacts strategic decision-making in areas like 'hiring, firing, choosing equipment,' which are core business functions. The underlying mathematical models (Beta-PERT, Kelly criterion, signal detection theory) provide a robust analytical foundation. This product has strong B2B potential as an executive coaching tool, a component of project management, or a training platform for improving organizational forecasting and risk assessment.

calibration quiz Brier score track decisions probability estimates resolve them over time calibration curves over/underconfident Beta-PERT distributions payoff modeling Kelly criterion position sizing signal detection theory separating skill from randomness FastAPI NumPy/SciPy Next.js Supabase

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Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating

Score: 17