Comment on: Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating
by addisonl
> Question: A fair die rolling a 6 twice in a row is more likely than rolling 1-2-3-4-5-6 in sequenceTwo 6s in a row is 1/36 chance (1/6)^21-2-3-4-5-6 is a 1/46656 chance (1/6)^6Website is claiming they are the same probability:> Same probability: 1/46,656 — Both outcomes have exactly the same probability: (1/6)^6 = 1/46,656. This illustrates the representativeness heuristic — random-looking sequences feel more probable than ordered ones.Website's "answer" is wrong: was the question supposed to be rolling a 6 six times in a row?
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Posted: Apr 6, 2026
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