Comment on: Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating
by slothsonaplane
Brier scoring works on questions with cheap, fast resolution; the strategic decisions you mention (hiring, equipment, big purchases) resolve over months or years, often ambiguously, and the counterfactual never resolves at all. Curious whether the calibration gains from the rapid-feedback quiz actually transfer to the slow-feedback domains the tool is designed to help with, or whether it ends up training a slightly different skill. A second thing: most of my strategic decisions weren't solo, and once one calibrated person sits in a room with two louder uncalibrated ones, the calibration math stops being load-bearing. Have you thought about a team variant?
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Points: 17 • Comments: 59
Posted: Apr 6, 2026
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