Synthetic e-kerosene production from water and CO2 via a single-step RWGS-FT process: A techno-economic and global assessment

This study investigates the production of e-kerosene in the context of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) through direct CO 2 hydrogenation in a single-reactor Plug Flow Reactor (PFR) configuration, where CO 2 and renewable hydrogen are co-fed over potassium-promoted iron-based catalysts. Hydrogen is generated via proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis powered by renewable energy sources, enabling a fully renewable Power-to-Liquid (PtL) pathway for sustainable aviation fuel production. Within the reactor, simultaneous Reverse Water Gas Shift (RWGS) and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) reactions convert CO 2 into a synthetic crude enriched in kerosene-range hydrocarbons under operating conditions of 300 °C and 25 atm. Process simulation reveals that the Syn-Kerosene fraction is predominantly distributed within the C 8 –C 15 carbon-number range, with a pronounced maximum centered around C 9 –C 10 . In particular, Syn-Kerosene is primarily distributed between C 9 and C 13 , reaching peak selectivity values of approximately 0.21 at C 10 . Syn-Kerosene represents the dominant product fraction, achieving the highest single mass yield of 33.0 %. To improve efficiency, process optimizations are implemented to minimize energy and raw material consumption and maximize heat recovery and turbine-based power integration. Despite these optimizations, the PEM electrolyzer accounts for approximately 35 % of the total capital investment and 49 % of the total operating costs. A comprehensive techno-economic assessment is conducted through discounted cash-flow analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate long-term profitability and investment risk under varying assumptions of fixed capital cost, raw material costs, and product prices. Probabilistic distributions of Net Present Value (NPV), Discounted Cash Flow Rate of Return (DCFROR), and Discounted Payback Period (DPBP) are generated for production capacities ranging from 0.472 to 100 kt/y, highlighting the strong influence of process scale on economic feasibility. Finally, a global applicability analysis is performed to identify regions with favorable conditions for large-scale deployment of the technology. Within Europe, Nordic countries, such as Norway and Sweden, exhibit the highest suitability scores due to their high availability of renewable and low-carbon electricity relative to carbon emissions. The results demonstrate the techno-economic feasibility and limitations of direct FT-CO 2 hydrogenation as a scalable pathway for the production of e-kerosene in the aviation sector. Unlike previous analyses of CO 2 hydrogenation to e-kerosene based on individual case studies, the novelty of this work lies in an integrated assessment of the direct RWGS–FT process, combining reactor design and operating-condition optimization with process integration, techno-economic analysis, scale-up analysis, and regional assessment of renewable-electricity availability, thereby addressing the literature gap arising from the separate consideration of these aspects.