Agent-estimate, a tool for estimating coding task effort at AI agent speed.
Raw Developer Origin & Technical Request
Hacker News
May 22, 2026
I have used Codex & Claude Code for coding for a while, but how long a coding task will actually take? When I ask Claude Code to estimate, the result is often from training data, which is based on human speed.
That’s why I built this tool, to estimate effort in ai agent speed. I run it every morning before I dispatch coding tasks to my agents.What's in it:
task sizing: auto-classifies XS to XL from the description, then runs PERT on that tier
human-equivalent comparison: a per-task-type multiplier so you see the speedup
METR p80 thresholds: warns when an estimate exceeds a model's reliability horizon
wave planning: schedules independent tasks in parallel across a multi-agent fleetThe estimation data is from my daily coding tasks from past few weeks:
per-runtime calibration: Opus 4.7, GPT-5.5, different models have different reliability horizons and costs
per-task-type priors: backend, frontend, app development, docs, and brainstorm
PR review: I usually let Codex and Claude Code review each other’s code, and the tool takes that into consideration
a calibration loop that keeps me honest: dispatch data is validated at end of day by my coordinator agentTry it: pip install agent-estimate, read the code github.com/kiloloop/agent-es... , or the writeup kiloloop.com/agent-estimate/
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