Methodological Framework for Tsunami Risk Assessment in Port Facilities

Abstract. The present study proposes a comprehensive methodological framework for the assessment of tsunami risk in port terminals. Although tsunami hazard modeling has advanced significantly, the development of asset-specific vulnerability functions and risk indicators at the terminal scale remains a critical challenge, hindering the effective integration of scientific knowledge into operational port planning. The main objective of this study is to propose a methodological framework specifically tailored to tsunami risk assessment in port terminals. The analysis focuses on assessing damage to key components of the port supply chain located within the port’s landside operational area and directly exposed to tsunami impacts. The proposed framework integrates advanced numerical hydrodynamic modeling, dynamic exposure analyses and asset-specific damage states. Its main novelty lies in the quantification of vulnerability thresholds based on hydrodynamic failure mechanisms for heterogeneous port assets, including container stacks, gantry cranes, liquid bulk tanks, Ro-Ro, and pedestrians. The methodology was applied to the Port of Cádiz, Spain. The results show that relative tsunami risk is spatially concentrated in specific operational areas and assets, particularly container storage yards and passenger circulation zones. The proposed framework is modular and can be adapted to other port contexts, provided that suitable local hazard, exposure, and asset information is available. Rather than providing absolute estimates of losses, the framework offers a spatially explicit decision-support basis for identifying critical assets, comparing relative risk among docks, and prioritising further detailed assessments or mitigation actions.